Silver is headed for a correction. I don’t know when. It could be a week or a month or 3 months. No one knows.
Silver’s price action is impossible to predict with any kind of accuracy… but no asset rises like we’ve seen silver without a healthy pullback.
And look: I’m very bullish on silver’s long-term prospects. It’s why I have a handful of the world’s best silver companies in my GP portfolio.
Currently, there’s a massive disconnect between the prices of the metals and the underlying values in most of the companies I cover. I’ll let you know when that shifts, but right now, every company (outside of a handful) are selling well below my fair valuations.
But silver is in an increasingly dangerous place. Wise investors know not to chase an asymptote higher. They know to be fearful when others get greedy. They know that opportunities are made up easier than losses.
We’re at that point with silver. You can see that when silver spikes like this, it also tends to drop like a rock before too long. And while I firmly believe we are entering a new era for precious metals, a reset, a remonetization – and all of the other proof points in the precious metal investor’s toolbox of arguments…
That doesn’t mean we should abandon all caution.
We can be right about the long-term arc of silver and still be skeptical of the latest price action.
For instance, last month I advised my paid readers to trim their positions by 20%. That doesn’t mean we’re bearish on gold and silver. It means we were given windfall profits in a very short time period and we’d be foolhardy not to pick some of them up.
I know many investors view this kind of nuanced position as confusing or somehow traitorous to the “cause” of precious metals. But look: we’re not revolutionaries. We’re not making a political statement with our investments.
We’re stewards of capital who make intelligent moves when the math is in our favor.
Any other motivation you have for your investments has to take a back seat to being a rational steward.
I’m not going to flatter your ego by telling you things that just aren’t true or aren’t putting your money in the best possible position.
Because this bull market is not over. It’s going to get fantastically profitable – but it’s also going to get more challenging.
It’s easy when we’re ahead of the curve on our investments – to feel like we know something the market hasn’t yet figured out. But once the curve starts to catch up, and you see your thesis in 24-point font in a mainstream publication… and you see your gold and silver holdings soaring above what you ever imagined?
That’s when you need to make tough decisions about when to buy, sell or hold.
To be clear: these are good problems to have.
Stay tuned.
Best,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio