I just got back home from Porter and Co’s conference, held at Porter Stansberry’s farm in Maryland.
I heard from a couple dozen speakers – all expert analysts in their particular fields. I also gave my own talk – which was focused on the similarity between today’s gold market, and the gold bull of the 1970s.
My main point: in the 1970s, we experienced periods of inflation, volatility, a conflict with Iran and the middle east in general that sent oil prices through the roof. We saw interest rates bounce around, making price discovery and long-term planning difficult.
We also ended the 1970s with a stock market that had zero returns over a 15 year period.
Today, we have many of these same factors going on – starting with inflation…
Just look at this chart that plots inflation today vs. the inflation rates of the 1970s:
It’s rare to see two charts match this closely in any field. It’s worth paying attention to, because if the trend continues then we have an incredible road map for what’s coming.
Also, consider that bonds are now near 20 year high yields:
Now, if you take a step back from your gold positions (which I hope are doing well), you might notice that rising bond yields, high diesel prices, volatility and conflict in the middle east are generally not good, over the short term, for gold prices.
And over the past month, gold prices are down ~7%, thanks to all of these metrics, and more.
I want to be clear: I don’t know if we’re currently in a “1975” scenario for gold stocks. No one does.
But if we are, it would mean we’re about to see further declines in the price of gold and gold securities. The decline in gold stocks in the mid-70s lasted for about a year – before soaring 500% through the early 1980s.
For people with a short time preference, a year-long gold price correction is devastating. It’s the worst case scenario, because it means they will sell at the worst time, and probably buy back only after it’s too late.
And I honestly hope we just skip the whole year-long correction, but equally as honestly: if we do have a year-long correction, it will certainly be a terrible time to be in the business of selling gold stock research, but for the few who can stick it out: it will be the best time of your life to buy gold stocks.
The good news:
I’m going to be hypervigilant in this regard. At the first sign that we’re entering a period of broad and sustained decline like we saw in the 1970s, I will let my readers know that it’s time to trim positions, take gains and prepare your dry powder.
In fact, I already told readers earlier this year during gold’s monster rally in January that it was time to take profits. If you listened, then you missed out on the worst of the downturn.
On January 26, 2026, I wrote in an issue of Golden Opportunity that you should trim your positions – 3 days before the peak on January 29.
Right now, I’m still bullish over all time horizons on gold and gold securities in my portfolio – but that can change.
I’m not a permabull on gold. There are times to step aside, take profits and wait for better value. If that happens, you’ll be among the first to hear it from me.
Stay tuned,
Best,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio
