Before I get into $15,000 gold… here’s a collage of team GP at Disney World last week:
Last week I briefly mentioned an interview with Pierre Lassonde, the godfather of gold investing where he said that gold could hit $17,250 due to ballooning US debt.
He said, “I reiterate that my $17,250 gold price is as solid as can be… I’m convinced we will see this in the next… three years.”
Reminder that Lassonde is the founder of Franco Nevada, and the architect behind multiple billion dollar deals. He’s as good as it gets when it comes to running a gold business. He’s talking his book here, obviously, but he knows his stuff.
Before Lassonde’s interview was published, I observed what can only be described as unusual options volume on gold futures for December 2026 expiration.
I wrote in my May issue of Golden Portfolio:
“Follow the Smart Money
Large option trades at $20,000/oz Gold strike price have been hitting the tape. 22K December Gold future options with $15K strike traded at $8.30 per contract. 24K December Gold Future options with $20K strike traded at $3.80 per contract. These are large block trades that are worth a notional $48 billion worth of Gold with each contract equal to 100 Gold oz. Somebody knows something…
The trader paid net $9 mil for the trade, and will only profit if the Gold price reaches $15,000/oz by December 2026 with gains capped at $20,000/oz where he sold the calls. If Gold doesn’t reach $15K/oz by December 2026 this trader is out $9 mil. You don’t put this far out of the money trade on unless you know Gold will be at least at $15K/oz in December. If Gold reaches $20K by December the trader would pocket $4,991.70 per contract worth $11.1 billion…”
Betting $9 million for a chance to pocket $11 billion (a 1,200X gain) would be arguably the greatest trade of all time.
But $9 million isn’t chump change either. Who has that kind of money to throw at a trade unless they’re fairly certain it will pay out? Not many people…
The thesis for this trade is that someone in the Trump administration could know something about gold with relation to the dollar. A revaluation of some kind could be in the works.
It’s something that Treasury Secretary Bessent has talked about already. In February 2025 he said, “we’re going to monetize the asset side of the balance sheet.”
How would that work?
The Federal Government claims to own something like 8,000 tonnes of gold. Revaluing gold at $20,000 (up from the official valuation of $42.22/oz) would more than stem the tide of US debt, and would massively change the balance sheet situation for the Treasury.
At $20,000 gold, the US Treasury suddenly has $5.2 trillion worth of gold on the balance sheet – an overnight improvement that puts the $39 trillion in debt into perspective.
Will it happen?
I don’t know. If it did, it would be the most impactful monetary convention in the history of the world. And importantly: it would send all of our gold stocks through the roof.
I don’t think it’s an exaggeration that owning even $10k worth of a handful of gold stocks would make you millions, almost overnight.
Obviously, this kind of revaluation is a best case scenario for our gold positions.
But Pierre Lassonde is not in the habit of making ridiculous, unfounded statements. And someone apparently believes enough in this possibility to put $9 million of cash money on the line…
Stay tuned.
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio
