Have You Heard of the Golden Anomaly?
Gold is still an early stage opportunity and I can prove it.
All investor markets move in cycles. It might be more generally true that all human behavior is cyclical too, but let’s focus on financial matters for now…
Commodity markets in particular follow ~10+ year cycles. Perhaps the most reliable trend in finance is the commodity supercycle – which tends to coincide with bear markets in stocks.
According to a 2016 paper from the Bank of Canada, supercycles have historically lasted between 5-17 years.
So if you’re a gold investor, you should know: at what stage are we in the cycle?
And more importantly, how can you know?
One way to tell is to look at the market’s weighting for commodities vs. other securities.
For instance, take a look at these two charts showing both gold and gold miner ETFs as a percentage of all ETFs:
According to these charts, gold miners in particular are near their all time lows – at least since they’ve been in the market. The market is still not heavily invested in gold miners by any metric. That means in general, the gold miners are still selling for a deep discount.
Even though we’ve seen the sector rise by 35% so far in 2025, it’s still early.
You still have time to buy gold investments. At the same time, no one knows how long this bull market in gold will last. It could be 5 years. It could be 17 – or something in between. Gold only started breaking out in 2024 – so we’re only about 18 months into this move:
I estimate we’re only about 10% into this bull run – and before it ends, we’re going to see gold stocks move much higher. If history is any indication, I would expect major gold ETFs like GDX to at least double, while individual stocks could easily soar 5X-10X.
Stay tuned.
Good investing,
Garrett Goggin, CFA
Chief Analyst & Founder, Golden Portfolio