My gold research is apolitical. If you’re here looking for confirmation of some political viewpoint, you will be disappointed.
That’s because there’s clearly no political will from anyone within 50 miles of Washington DC to do anything that will stop the destruction of the US currency. Remember DOGE? The world’s richest man and one of the savviest businessmen to ever live tried his best to cut waste and fraud in the Federal budget and he only managed to find a rounding error’s worth.
Cutting spending is basically impossible. Raising taxes (tax receipts as a share of GDP suggests we’re already close to the historic US threshold high) is also politically unpopular and difficult.
If the GOP won all of their contested seats instead of mostly the DNC, I would be no more optimistic about the dollar’s outcome. That’s because very little of America’s future spending will be dictated by any election. Most of it is already set.
We’re likely 40+ years beyond voting our way to fixing this budget.
The Congressional Budget Office projects increased spending for decades to come. In 2026 alone, the deficit is likely to surpass $2 trillion. The CBO’s own estimate from February targeted $1.9 trillion, but these guys always undershoot.
The problem extends far into the future. There are no plans for matching outlays with revenues. The CBO estimates the deficit will continue to be 5%+ of US GDP for the foreseeable future. From a very basic standpoint, the only way this scenario works is if the US government inflates the currency by 5% of GDP/year.
Add in interest expense and that number balloons higher along with any rate above zero.
Simultaneously, the world’s central banks resumed their gold buying with fervor in Q3, adding almost the same amount of gold as they did in Q3 2025 – which was a record.
And yet, in spite of these obvious data points, gold moved lower throughout Q3, ending the quarter down almost 10%.
Gold stocks were basically flat, buoyed by average higher metals prices which helped margins.
Political analysts can now bicker about what a DNC-led House and Senate means, but when it comes to the long term budget, it’s meaningless. The only real question is: how much worse will the actual budget be in the years to come?
And more to the point: how much higher is gold likely to rise as the Federal Government is forced to make up budget shortfalls through brute-force inflation/devaluation of the dollar?
Whatever your politics, you’re here as a gold investor. The good news: not a single politician who will leave office was doing a lick of good as a budget hawk, preventing the demise of the dollar and the rise of gold. Not a single politician who will be sworn into office can or will stop what’s coming.
You’re in the right place to benefit from the intractable inflation that will send gold and gold stocks soaring.
The political and market uncertainty of the past 6 months has crushed gold and sent some of the world’s best gold securities down below prices we haven’t seen in years.
That’s only bad news if you had planned to sell them all today.
Stay the course – look ahead to where our holdings are likely to be.
Best,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio
